Disjointed thinking on prices.

Responding to Linlithgow’s insistence on the need for market data to be available on a regular basis, a senior MAF official, Mr RJ Thomson, submitted a more detailed version of the government’s reservations over broadcasting raw price data without a standardised format or structure. Thomson told the commission that MAF was working on a “comparative index” that would somehow make sense of wholesale and retail price movements. It couldn’t be done in the 1920s and I’m not convinced we could do it in 2025. Take the example of a pig producer with slaughter weight bacon pig to sell in 1925. The creature is sold to a curer, who kills the animal and splits it into two sides of bacon. So far we have two mirror image halves of the same animal. One side of bacon goes to a Drury Lane emporium, the other to a Tyneside grocer on the east coast. The cuts that are taken off a London side of bacon, sold in a well-to-do part of London will earn more than the side of bacon shipped to Newcastle, even when the higher shipping costs are factored in. It is so predictable, but illogical, and index numbers won’t explain it.

It is not difficult to spot a flaw in M AF’s argument: the cumulative effect of the changes made at each stage are not counted as part of the process.  Is this the only structural flaw?

 

 

What price data?

The biggest challenge that faces  traders of all descriptions in arriving at a reliable price structure is the speed at which food products can change. Some animal products undergo a series of changes from farmgate to end user, others barely change at all. Some foods deteriorate very fast, while others are stable; add to this processes such as grading and the scope for differentiation can spiral out of control.   For a comparison to be usable, the items need a number of similarities, bearing in mind that not all users will have the same interests. At the risk of keeping alive a business myth, there were some retailers who chose to take a cut in their margins rather than push up prices. Some individual members of of the Linlithgow committee would have been very well informed about specific markets and sector, but less inclined perhaps to share.

The stability and predictability of sectors such as cereal crops, milling and baking followed a pattern of incremental development. The step from wholesale  trade to retailing, however, marks a sea change, reflecting the finer detail in retail distribution and home delivery costs. Investing in automotive resources ran deep in the bedrock of the economy of the day and was not going to be neither quick nor cheap.

The constant chivvying for market data was neither focussed for the most part nor available in the sort of unambiguous form that would have helped lay readers to learn more about the free market edifice. For instance, try explaining day-to-day shifts in retail pricing, arising from wholesale price changes that operate on a different basis. Even the denominations of coinage had an impact in the pricing of the retail world.

The ministry dug its heels in and refused to make a rod for its own back. The public should not be left to be baboozled by the high power antics of economists. How could such experts in their individual fields be left to explain the rise in mutton prices was a consequence of higher wool prices? After all, sheep are not killed for their wool.

Bear necessities

Spare a thought for Tex, a grizzly bear with form for breaking, entering and… eating. It should come as no surprise that between fishing trips, Tex likes urban environments. Something to do with easy pickings and creature comforts, no doubt. Apparently, the Canadian state has teams of animal experts who monitor delinquent grizzlies, inter alia. Some weeks ago, Tex took a high-risk three-mile swim to Texada island off the coast of British Colombia: this 30-mile long sliver of land is also home to a human population of around 1,200 people. This particular bear has been forcibly relocated on a number of occasions, but the grizzly’s navigational abilities always triumphed. As is often the case, the conclusive options are difficult: cull the bear before human lives are lost; cull the bear after human lives are lost; the hardest one to adopt is to do nothing, even though it is the most logical to succeed in bringing about trust the long term.

 

 

Marketing insects takes more than buzz words

It is easy to make a case for raising insects as a food crop, the farming industry done this sort of thing all the time for some pretty unsavoury byproducts. However, it is hard to persuade western consumers that it could be cool to include insects in their daily diet. In parts of the world where insects are on the menu, the trade is a local business, more local loop than long haul. Ironically, increasingly affluent countries such as China are pushing up their meat consumption and cutting back on traditional specialities.

Writing in Sustainable Production and Consumption 49, Dustin Crummett notes a lack of food industry research into plant or insect products that might challenge meat in the weekly shop. The head of the insect institute, Crummett draws on philosophy and religion for a lot of his work: but his disappointment is unmistakeable.

His frustration arises from the difficulty of making one meal ingredient replace another. His argument is simple: lower resource ingredients mean less costly food. However, the additional habitat requirements and changing user profile can add costs that were once disregarded by economists. Counting a price calculation differently does not necessarily mean something costs less, it just costs differently.

Comparing muscles to motors

Urban Food Chains has chipped away at a series of posts on the introduction of heavy machine guns which carried out a mechanised cull of thousands of working horses and pack animals. Intentionally or otherwise, the result was to clear the way for commercial motors of different sorts on British roads. Rule of thumb loading practices for draft animal at the time would have been about 20% bodyweight. Given that the working life of a horse can be up to 20 years and you have to spend four years feeding and training them before putting them to work, there was no point in sending fit young horses to battlefields to die within weeks of arrival having realised only 0.00520833 recurring of their potential work capacity (one month, a notional average) had they lived to work for 16 years, or close on 200 months.

 

Motor manufacturers, including foreign groups which set up assembly lines in the UK (notably Ford; General Motors; Chrysler) , throttled back their car production and turned over their car lines to two and three ton lorry chassises for subsequent adaptations / personnel carriers. Their component stocks were low specificity (eg alternators to a basic spec, multiple mount options).

 

There was nothing particularly complicated about a WW1 pick up truck, like most new products there was a lot of workshop time to anticipate. There were  20 or so manufacturers supplying the market, including high end folk like Thorneycroft (half tracks and road/rail hybrids). The core manufacturers turned out just over 20,0000 vehicles during the war, when entry level commercial motors were 500 pounds a go. That gave the makers a combined order book of around 10 million pounds over the four years of hostilities.

By the time the postwar economy had settled down, engines had improved in power and reliability and manufacturing margins had recovered. The world’s horse population was about 8 million less than at the turn of the century, and the conversion of agricultural businesses to new technologies was gathering pace.

Two related nuggets: when I moved to Crawley, one of my neighbours  once worked as a spy for the British government  while posted to the Afrika corps. His favourite anecdote was that the Ford lorries supplied to military buyers all used the same drive shaft construction. This meant that US army stationed in Europe; ae well as the relatively small number sold to Hitler’s army as well as the British army were interchangeable.  Final item: Hitler couldn’t fully fund diesel powered troops on the eastern front, so he sent horse units with troops riding in a sort of sidecar. You can see them from time to time in Pathé news footage of the day.

New use for survey data

Archaeologists have been able to identify and confirm the existence of historic remains buried in Mexican rainforest from existing geological survey data. Postgraduate researcher Luke Auld-Thomas, a PhD student at Tulane university discovered a Mayan settlement roughly the size of Edinburgh when he applied archaeological analytical techniques to an environmental study carried out a few years ago.

Using a combination of laser pulses and radar technology, known as “lidar”, experts can reveal buildings and other structures buried in otherwise impenetrable jungle. In his investigation, Auld-Thomas identified a reservoir and buildings that may have accommodated thirty to fifty thousand citizens at the peak of its era, believed to be between 750 and 850 AD. For now the site is known as Valeriana, after a nearby lagoon off the Yucatan peninsula.

The discovery of a site on the scale of Calakmul poses more questions than it answers. The extent of Mayan settlements combined with their inaccessibility, coupled with a lack of accessible contemporary records makes them a mystery to modern researchers.

‘Just watch my lips’

Researchers have discovered that horses have a more extensive repertoire of facial expressions than previously thought. There are even some signals that are aimed at other species, such as ear movements. Visit the University of Portsmouth for more details. The project covered a wider range of situations than previously attempted, going beyond human-generated contexts. Some of the horses’ facial repertoire echo similar expressions recorded ith primates.

Technology forces changes in warfare

The arrival of Vickers machine guns in the second Boer war changed military expectations of what would become possible in years to come.

 

Starting with the Boer war at the turn of the twentieth century, the impact of heavy machine guns was devastating  on industrial battlefields, where thousands of horses were culled. The effect on the British economy was immense and immediate owing to the huge numbers of working animals needed to move equipment such as artillery from one site to the next. Such basic tasks became lethal interludes, as enemy machine gunners could take out the lead pair in a team of six or eight, immobilising the equipment, the surviving horses and the hapless soldiers who had to sort out the situation and salvage what was recoverable.

 

Horses and other pack animals were valued more highly by the British general staff than the rank and file soldiers of the day. The loss of thousands  of horses was a problem for manufacturers everywhere, especially those who needed to provide local delivery services for their customers. 

 

You can reckon that horses would have been expected to carry up to twenty percent of their body weight. Their harnesses may not have been taken into account, but would have been a significant proportion of the loaded animals’ burden. Establishing the loaded weight of a pack horse allows us to make some very rough and ready comparisons between the horses lost to the war effort and the rising numbers of two and three ton commercial vehicles that started to appear on British roads in 1914.

 

The power output of the early lorries used in opening years was fairly low for the most part, around 10 horsepower. You could say that every lorry did work that would have taken a team of six or a team of eight horses. In doing so, it is important to establish more than one set of parameters to make the comparison useable. It is fair to add that the power output from commercial motors increased rapidly from the late 1920s, this can readily checked by consulting contemporary advertisements. Despite its years of international power and influence, Britain was a net importer of horses between around 1860 and the 1930s. This not only stressed the economy, it makes valid comparisons between machinery and horses hard to establish.

 

It is quite likely that vehicle purchases made by the British government throughout the war years contributed to greater volumes of lorry traffic on British roads attributable to registered vehicles. Even if a high proportion of military vehicles are not registered through civilian agencies, what matters is that the total pool of vehicle tonnage was boosted in the process. Wartime government purchases of 20,000 vehicles will have added about ten million pounds to the postwar development iterations of the next generation of commercial motors..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Horse power

Recently, there has been a slew of posts about horses on this blog with more discussion than explanation. Some of you may remember that the narrative line in this blog goes back to prehistory, when humanity was sheltering from an ice age climate alongside a number of species that we now work with very closely, such as horses and cows, not forgetting companion creatures, such as cats and dogs. During the ice ages, we didn’t get to choose a place to shelter, we just piled in and got by as best we could. At one end of the spectrum, living in one place by choice can be called domestication, at the other end it can be purgatory. Everybody brings something different to the party: night vision; accurate identification of wild fungi; encyclopaedic knowledge of next year’s runners in the Grand National; whatever. For centuries, the norm has been anthropocentric and horses are expected to fit in with some pretty unimaginative stereotypes. An animal that goes down the gallops most days with Grand National runners would form a view of its rivals fast enough, but it will take humans an eternity to tune into this idea, let alone think of asking for an explanation. Horses just get it. They can see a problem when it’s still just a dot on the horizon.

Humanity, on the other hand, will get shirty and go to war rather than sit down and talk through a problem. At the beginning of the 20th century, the industrial world slaughtered thousands of men and horses for no good reason. Sending mounted troops to shut down machine gun nests just made it worse. For centuries, horses have worked alongside the toiling masses, dragging felled tree trunks to waiting lorries; towing delivery vans; hauling lifeboats to safer launching sites; all manner of heavy work. One hundred years ago, horses used to fill in the gaps in delivery systems, the fabled final mile.

Back then, equidae had a role to play, but things are different now. Somewhere in the economy, a landslip buried the past, imposing a new order and rewriting history. Some of it is as simple as a shift in meaning, take the transition from “load” to “payload”. Anyone can carry a load, even a horse, but it takes precision technology to deliver a payload. Interestingly, however, horsepower is still going strong for the power output of motorised vehicles. During the transition from livestock to automotive innovation, retaining horsepower for comparisons identified some of the advantages of the second wave commercial vehicles. By the mid 1920s, the transition was a fait accompli, in the absence of any additional sources of brood mares. The continuity and availability of four or even three-year olds was held back by a preference for keeping brood mares for riding until their general fitness declined, as does their ability to keep up with the fashionable demand for a rapid high-stepping gait.

More follows later

Korea choices

The Korean island of Jeju is special: once upon a time, seaweed growing around the island used to feed grazing abalone populations. These were fished by the Haenyeo, free diving fisherwomen, who used to earn enough from their activity to be able to feed their families.

Haenyeo swim and fish underwater without breathing apparatus.

Alas, today this natural balance is rapidly becoming a distant memory. Many of the surviving Haenyeo are over 70, and while they are bathed in the reflected glory of a bygone age, the Korean government is working with the governing body on Jeju to bring through a generation of ecologically aware free divers to keep the fishery alive. The Guardian covered the story here.

These would-be successors face a number of problems: the abundant crops of seaweed on Jeju are no longer as extensive as they used to be, and as the seasons pass, abalone catches continue to decline. Some of the future Haenyeo are concerned because when they listen to the older fishers speak in public about what they do, they leave out details that really matter and paint a misleading picture of what is happening in the once thriving waters off Jeju. This is unfortunate, since the memories of Jejeu’s former glory days have been fed to Unesco by the autonomous province’s government. It was subsequently added to Unesco’s list of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, as an object lesson in sustainability. What matters, though, is to break the logjam and get a recovery plan established while there is still a fishery to rescue. Fortunately for the inhabitants of Jeju, there are citizen scientists and environmentalists preparing to channel public goodwill into an NGO that will assess what can be recovered.

A problem the NGO has identified is that although previous generations of Haenyeo may have been aware of the early signs of environmental damage, they lacked the confidence and a scientific framework that would have given weight to their argument. Faced with the prospect of being put down by “real” scientists, not surprisingly, in the past many Haenyeo chose to stay silent.

A 69-year old Haenyeo whose adult daughter has decided to become a citizen scientist was heartbroken to learn that her daughter’s career move would involve becoming a Haenyeo. “I wanted her to have a proper job like joining the civil service,” she told journalists at The Guardian. “We older women don’t want our daughters to be Haenyeo.”